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by Dennis Boz |
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by Dennis Boz |
A system has been devised to rate the best and worst post season games and series of all time....
Using a system of ‘rating’ how good a playoff game was based on the score after each ˝ inning, I’ve scored all the playoff games back to 1916. Games are rated based on closeness (how close the home team win probability is to 50%) and turnaround (the change in win probability from the last ˝ inning).Using a system of ‘rating’ how good a playoff game was based on the score after each ˝ inning, I’ve scored all the playoff games back to 1916. Games are rated based on closeness (how close the home team win probability is to 50%) and turnaround (the change in win probability from the last ˝ inning).
Using the system, the best playoff games are all extra inning contests. This makes sense, since a 15-inning game probably has some kind of late comeback + 6 innings of sudden death. The top ten (average game rating is about 5):
| Series Road Homes Innings Rating 1995 ALDS1..G2 Mariners 5 Yankees 7 15 19.85 1999 NLCS....G5 Braves 3 Mets 4 15 19.30 1986 NLCS....G6 Mets 7 Astros 6 16 16.95 1916 WS......G2 Robins 1 Red Sox 2 14 15.75 (complete game win for Babe Ruth) 1995 ALDS2..G1 Red Sox 4 Indians 5 13 15.66 2000 NLDS2..G3 Giants 2 Mets 3 13 13.82 1975 WS......G6 Reds 6 Red Sox 7 12 13.59 2000 WS......G1 Mets 3 Yankees 4 12 13.46 1945 WS......G6 Tigers 7 Cubs 8 12 13.13 Worst Game (4-way tie) 1996 NLCS...G7 Cardinals 0 Braves 15 9 1.56 1960 WS.....G3 Pirates 0 Yankees 10 9 1.56 1998 WS.....G2 Padres 3 Yankees 9 9 1.56 2001 WS.....G6 Yankees 2 Dbacks 15 9 1.56 Top 9 Inning Game 1993 WS......G4 Blue Jays 15 Phillies 14 9 10.05 1960 WS......G7 Yankees 9 Pirates 10 9 9.92 1977 NLCS...G3 Dodgers 6 Phillies 5 9 9.81 1984 NLCS...G4 Cubs 5 Padres 7 9 9.42 2000 NLCS...G2 Mets 6 Cardinals 5 9 9.14 1995 NLDS1..G1 Braves 5 Rockies 4 9 8.77 1972 WS......G4 Reds 2 Athletics 3 9 8.59 1995 NLDS1..G2 Braves 7 Rockies 4 9 8.55 1988 ALCS....G2 Red Sox 3 Athletics 4 9 8.55 2001 WS......G7 Yankees 2 Diamondbacks 3 9 8.48 |
Once the games themselves are rated, they can in turn be used to rate how good a playoff series is. The simplest rating is to sum the game ratings. The results are…
| Series Games Rating 1999 NLCS.....Total 6 54.35 1991 WS.......Total 7 52.65 1975 WS.......Total 7 51.92 1986 NLCS.....Total 6 49.36 1980 NLCS.....Total 5 46.60 1924 WS.......Total 7 46.59 1995 ALDS1...Total 5 46.01 1997 ALCS.....Total 6 45.88 1921 WS.......Total 8 42.82 2001 WS.......Total 7 42.10 Worst Series 2000 NLDS: Atlanta/St Louis |
The usual suspects appear: 1975 WS, 1991 WS, 2001 WS, 1980 NLCS. But in no way can the 1999 NLCS can be considered the best playoff series ever. The problem with including that series is that the Braves won the first 3-games draining the excitement from the rest of the games. It has the second highest rated playoff game ever (G5) and the 19th highest rated game as well (G6). The score for G5 is half of the score of the entire 2001 WS. Too much weight is given the outlier and the context the game is played is ignored. This system also gives an advantage to 7-game series over 5-game series.
So I looked at the average game scores…For context,
10% of all playoff games rate 9+
13% of all playoff games rate 8+
20% of all playoff games rate 7+
| Series Games Average Score 1980 NLCS...Total 5 9.32 1995 ALDS1..Total 5 9.20 1999 NLCS...Total 6 9.06 1969 ALCS...Total 3 8.87 1986 NLCS...Total 6 8.23 1995 NLDS1..Total 4 7.72 1997 ALCS...Total 6 7.65 1995 ALDS2..Total 3 7.56 1991 WS......Total 7 7.52 1975 WS......Total 7 7.42 Worst Series 2000 NLDS (Atlanta/St Louis) |
This has a different problem; short series have an edge. Two 3-0 series sweeps make the list. Again, a single outstanding game can put you on the top of the list. To avoid single games from skewing the results, I converted the ratings into percentiles.
| Series Games Average Game Percentiles 1980 NLCS....Total 5 86.10% 1995 NLDS1..Total 4 77.86% 2000 ALDS2..Total 3 75.80% 1999 NLCS....Total 6 74.96% 1997 NLDS1..Total 3 74.38% 1975 WS......Total 7 73.89% 1996 ALDS2..Total 4 73.34% 1970 NLCS....Total 3 72.88% 1969 ALCS....Total 3 72.52% 1995 ALDS1...Total 5 71.16% Worst Series 2000 NLDS: Atlanta/St Louis (a triple crown) |
Four 3-0 sweeps make the list again. The 1980 NLCS is amazing by this measure. It is farther from the #2 series than #2 is from #10. Not only that but only it, 75 WS and 95 ALDS1 went the distance.
My final attempt was to weight the game scores by the status of the series. A game played with the series tied 2-2 will count more than the same game with a team up 3-1 in the series. The weights were based on how much the chance of winning the series would shift depending on if the next game was won or lost. In a 7-game series, the G1 weight=31.25%, G7 weight=100%. If the series was 3-0 then the weight for game four would be 12.5%
This system favors longer series, series that go the distance and series with an outstanding last game.
| Series Game Score Weighted Score 1980 NLCS....Total 5 46.60 27.67 1924 WS......Total 7 46.59 25.73 1975 WS......Total 7 51.92 25.41 1991 WS......Total 7 52.65 25.21 1995 ALDS1..Total 5 46.01 24.56 1986 NLCS....Total 6 49.36 21.70 2001 WS......Total 7 42.10 21.70 1997 WS......Total 7 36.55 20.52 1952 WS......Total 7 40.35 20.04 1925 WS......Total 7 38.54 18.79 |
The 1999 NLCS vanishes from the top ten. No series sweeps are on the list. Only one of these series did not go the distance. None of the recent series that are included surprise me. But even with the bias towards longer series, a 5-game series rates the highest.
I guess one could add a discount factor in for championship series and a larger one for division series since they are just stepping stones to the WS.
But as a Phillies fan, I just can’t do it.